This article continues the analysis of a decision guide for the annual choice between ARC-CO (Agricultural Risk Management – County) and PLC (Price Loss Coverage).  In an analysis discussed in…

Given the large differences in commodity prices received and projected net returns, it was not surprising to find a substantial gap in producer sentiment between crop and livestock producers in the July 2026 Ag Economy Barometer survey. Other survey results, however, were more consistent across farm types. Input costs were the biggest concern and the most mentioned limiting factor to financial performance for both groups.

Agricultural, construction, and mining machinery manufacturing remains an important link between the Midwest’s agricultural and manufacturing sectors. Farmers are more likely to purchase new equipment and replace older machinery when farm incomes are strong. Consequently, this industry is not only a key driver of Midwestern manufacturing competitiveness, but also an important indicator of the broader agricultural economy.

As a group, US farmers’ decision on which commodity program to elect captured only about 67% of potential ARC-CO and PLC payments during the 2021-2024 crop years. This article proposes a simple decision guide that a “what if” analysis found would have captured around 93% of potential 2021-2024 crop year ARC-CO and PLC payments, compared to 67% actually paid to farmers, a substantial improvement.

Soon, the decision-making process for the 2027 crop will begin in earnest, and Midwest farmers will begin making acreage choices between corn and soybeans. Across all regions, soybeans have been more profitable than corn in most years since 2012. This history suggests that soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2027 because crop prices likely will be near long-run averages, general cost inflation will increase corn costs more than soybean costs, and nitrogen fertilizer prices will be high.

The US farm bill crop safety net targets two risks.  Crop insurance targets production-period low yield and revenue risk.  Commodity programs target multiple-year low price and revenue risk.  A farm…