This article presents a model to forecast net return at harvest for the nine field crops that USDA ERS computes an economic cost of production. The model includes last year’s percent net return at harvest, last year’s average return to storing US corn and soybeans, and the ratio of beginning world stocks to last year’s use of the nine crops. These variables forecast a percent net return at 2025 harvest of -20%. Forecasted total net loss for the nine crops combined is $36.4 billion.

The USDA recently announced payment rates for row crops eligible for the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Acres planted to corn ($44.36 per acre), soybeans ($30.88), wheat ($39.35), and 16 other eligible commodities should expect to receive FBA payments by the end of February. The average 1,500 acre grain farm in Illinois, with acres planted to corn and soybeans on owned and cash rented farmland, should expect to receive nearly $38 per planted acre or just over $56,000 in total FBA support.

Precision agriculture technology adoption is reshaping agricultural labor demand, shifting from manual work to technical roles. Analysis shows states with higher precision agriculture use have more farm service technicians per farm and higher technician wages, suggesting technology-driven demand changes. However, weak correlations indicate potential labor shortages and constraints in technician supply persist.

This article examined labor hours per acre and labor efficiency for crop farms using FINBIN data from 2007 to 2024. Comparing the smallest and largest farm categories, labor hours were significantly lower, and labor efficiency was significantly higher for the large farms. Labor hours per crop acre for the large farms averaged 1.7 hours per acre, while labor cost in proportion of gross farm income was 8.9 percent for the large farms.

Farm payments are intended to aid farmers by supporting incomes, reducing risk, and achieving conservation goals. However, payments may change farmer behavior in ways that are market distorting (Zulauf 2013). Such changes may include the choice of an individual to farm and the choice of the business structure or legal entity by which that individual engages in farming.

China is the world’s largest soybean importer, relying heavily on foreign supplies—primarily from the United States and Brazil—to meet rapidly growing animal feed demand. This article examines whether China’s recent soymeal-reduction policy is putting the country on a path toward greater soybean self-sufficiency. Using multiple data sources, including official Chinese statistics, USDA data, and third-party industry data, we assess changes in soymeal inclusion rates alongside trends in feed production and soybean imports. We find that while soymeal inclusion rates have declined compare with earlier years, the reduction is smaller and less smooth than official figures suggest. Continued growth in feed output has kept total soymeal demand and soybean imports at historically high levels. As a result, near-term impacts on major soybean exporters remain limited, though longer-run demand adjustments cannot be ruled out.